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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation DE K7RA
QST DE W1AW
ARRL Propagation Bulletin 19 ARLP019 From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, Washington May 10 2024
To all radio amateurs

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2302 UTC/09 MAY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

Four halo CMEs first observed over 08-09 May are expected to arrive at Earth on 10-May, starting at 1000 UTC +/- 10 hours. G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-May, reducing to G3 with a chance of G4 on 11-May.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 10-12 MAY 2024.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 10 May: G4 11 May: G3, chance of G4 12 May: G1

Six new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, May 2-8, one each day on May 2-4, two on May 5 and another on May 6. On May 9 two more sunspot groups emerged, and the daily sunspot number rose to 170.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 124.6 to 138.3, and average daily solar flux rose from 144.9 to 177.6.

Average daily planetary A index climbed from 9.6 to 14.4, while middle latitude numbers went from 8.6 to 12.3.

The most active day was May 2, when the planetary A index was 44. Alaska s college A index was 61. The cause was two CMEs striking earth, causing a G3 class geomagnetic storm.

The solar flux is peaking now, and may peak again around June 11-12 at 205.

Predicted solar flux is 240 and 225 on May 10-11, 220 on May 12-13, then 215 on May 14, then 210 on May 15-16,and 200, 195, 190, 185, 180, 175, 170, 165 and 170 on May 17-25, then 175 on May 26-27, 170 on May 28, then 165 on May 29-31, then 175, 180, 185, 190 and 185 on June 1-5, 175 on June 6-9, 180 on June 10, 205 on June 11-12, then 200, 195, 190 and 185 on June 13-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 12 and 10 on May 10-14, 5 on May 15-22, then 8, 12, 8, 5, 12 and 8 on May 23-28, then 5, 5 and 8 on May 29-31, and 12 on June 1-3, then 8, 10, 5 and 5 on June 4-7, then 8, 15 and 10 on June 8-10, and 5 on June 11-18.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 9, 2024 from OK1HH.

"This week, the number of sunspot groups was smaller than in previous weeks (decreased from nine on Monday to six on Wednesday), but two of them (AR3663 and AR3664) are really big. Moreover, both have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, indicating the possibility of producing strong solar flares. Moderate flares (M-class) were observed several times a day and large flares (X-class) were not an exception.

"Although AR3663 is now approaching the northwestern limb of the solar disk, the overall solar activity is certainly not decreasing, quite the contrary: AR3664 continued to grow rapidly, and has merged with neighbouring AR3668 to rival the large Carrington spot of 1859 in size. If it were to produce a CME eruption similar to 1859, and if the CME were to hit the Earth, the so-called "Carrington event" could be repeated, with potentially devastating consequences for power and communications grids.

"So far, on the lower shortwave bands, we have seen rapid and large increases in attenuation during large flares, up to and including disruption of communications for tens of minutes to hours. The phenomenon is abbreviated SWF (Shortwave Fading), belongs to the SID (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance) group. SWF is named after two physicists, John Howard Dellinger and Hans M gel, as the Dellinger effect, or sometimes M gel-Dellinger effect.

"Solar flares with CMEs in the western half of the solar disk appear to be followed by an increase in geomagnetic activity and a marked fluctuation in shortwave propagation conditions around the weekend, with a slow return to average conditions in the following days."

Recent reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?vCGdPOsRgBIE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?vRDEWbYqyNAo

Today's large sunspot comparable to Carrington Event.

https://bit.ly/3Uxd94R

Not like Carrington event.

https://bit.ly/4dA8eJ3

Northern lights.

https://wapo.st/3UyKgp8

https://bit.ly/3JX27kK

https://bit.ly/3JUrbZr

Really big sunspots.

https://bit.ly/44E2gTI

Flare attacks Earth!

https://voi.id/en/technology/379507

May 11 warning.

https://bit.ly/4bv45o5

Celestial onslaught.

https://bit.ly/4dAPDNk

Solar storm train.

https://bit.ly/3wjypDl

Aurora in Oregon and Washington.

https://bit.ly/4dvKDJE

Storms.

https://bit.ly/3JQv3e6

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don t forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Also, check this.

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8 2024 were 125, 121, 136, 152, 148, 144, and 142 with a mean of 138.3. 10.7 cm flux was 141.9, 156, 166.6, 176.9, 171.2, 203.6, and 227.1, with a mean of 177.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 44, 10, 6, 12, 15, 7, and 7, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 24, 16, 5, 12, 13, 6, and 10, with a mean of 12.3. NNNN