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K7RA's Solar Report

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Last update: Friday, 09-Nov-2018 10:44:46 GMT

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation DE K7RA
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Bulletin 45 ARLP045 From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, Washington November 9 2018
To all radio amateurs

At 2244 UTC on November 7 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning due to a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream on November 9-10. Active geomagnetic conditions are predicted for November 9, and unsettled to active conditions on November 10.

We saw another week with no sunspots, and the average daily solar flux softened from 68.6 to 67.7. Average planetary A index rose from 4.4 to 12, while average mid-latitude A index went from 3.4 to 8.1. On November 5 the planetary A index rose to 35, while Alaska's college A index went to 44, indicating disturbed conditions.

Predicted planetary A index from USAF and NOAA is milder than the Australian prediction, with the outlook for November 9-13 at 16, 18, 12, 14, and 10, then 5 on November 14-24, and 8 on November 25, 5 on November 26-30, then 15, 20, 12 and 8 on December 1-4, 5 on December 5-6, then 15 and 12 on December 7-8, and 5 on December 9-23.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on November 9-12, 68 on November 13-16, 69 on November 15, 70 on November 16-17, 69 on November 18-19, 68 on November 20 through December 8, 70 on December 9-14, 69 on December 15-16 and 68 on December 17-23.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 9 to December 5, 2018.

"Geomagnetic field will be: Quiet on November 14-16, 19-20, 23-26, 30 Quiet to unsettled on November 13, 27-29, December 5 Quiet to active on November 11, 17-18, 21-22 Unsettled to active on November 9-10, 12, December 3-4 Active to disturbed on December 1-2

Solar wind will intensify on November (9,) 10-12, (17-23, 30) and on December 1-3, (4)

Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Tamitha Skov posted a new video on November 4:

https://youtu.be/y7WMfs2yLg4

D. Moore and Max White both sent this richly detailed article from the European Space Agency about space weather:

https://bit.ly/2PKe9Dz

D. Moore sent another ESA article:

https://bit.ly/2D9zGie

Bruce Smith, AC4G in Tennessee sent this on November 2.

"Just wanted to share an exciting QSO I had on 23 October around 2230z. I was tuning 80m CW when all of a sudden I heard a CQ. Following the greyline I used the beverage to make QSO with VK9XG. I switched from NE beverage to the SE and heard the CQs at 559 and made the logbook a new band country for me.

A day or so later while tuning 160m At approximately 1205z, I heard my first Christmas Island signals with SWL report of 539. Several NA stations calling causing some confusion as they transmitted while VK9 transmitted, but still was very exciting to hear on top band. Signals faded at 1223z. Maybe a QSO next time.

I should have stated this was a longpath QSO using my vertical for my transmit antenna."

Check out AC4G at QRZ.com for interesting details on his operation.

Mike, W9NY of Chicago sent this report last week regarding the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest:

"Despite the reports of no sunspots, DX stations were plentiful during the contest sometimes with signals above S9 from my Dune Acres Indiana QTH. And with a TH7 aiming toward Europe I had South Americans calling me off the back of the beam. I think that 15 meters must often be open when it sounds completely dead. This CQ Worldwide contest was a perfect example. I worked over 70 countries just on 15!" "Despite the reports of no sunspots, DX stations were plentiful during the contest sometimes with signals above S9 from my Dune Acres Indiana QTH. And with a TH7 aiming toward Europe I had South Americans calling me off the back of the beam. I think that 15 meters must often be open when it sounds completely dead. This CQ Worldwide contest was a perfect example. I worked over 70 countries just on 15!"

"Despite the reports of no sunspots, DX stations were plentiful during the contest sometimes with signals above S9 from my Dune Acres Indiana QTH. And with a TH7 aiming toward Europe I had South Americans calling me off the back of the beam. I think that 15 meters must often be open when it sounds completely dead. This CQ Worldwide contest was a perfect example. I worked over 70 countries just on 15!"

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 1 through 7, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.8, 67.6, 67.4, 66.6, 68.3, 68.8, and 68.7, with a mean of 67.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 16, 35, 10, and 10, with a mean of 12. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 3, 7, 22, 9, and 8, with a mean of 8.1. NNNN


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