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Last update: Friday, 19-Jul-2019 04:50:25 GMT
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation DE K7RA
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Bulletin 29 ARLP029 From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, Washington July 19 2019
To all radio amateurs
Very low solar activity continues. Over the past week, average daily solar flux changed insignificantly from 67.1 to 67. There were no sunspots.
Average daily planetary A index changed from 8.4 to 5.9, while mid-latitude A index changed from 8.6 to 6.7. Conditions remain quiet.
Predicted solar flux is 68 on July 19-26, and 67 on July 27 to September 1.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 19-22, 8 on July 23, 5 on July 24-27, 8 on July 28, 5 on July 29 through August 3, then 8, 15, 15 and 8 on August 4-7, 5 on August 8-10, then 10, 12 and 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-23, 8 on August 24, 5 on August 25-30, then 8 and 15 on August 31 through September 1.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 19 til August 14, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.
"Geomagnetic field will be: Quiet on July 19, 24-25, August 2-3, 8, 13-14 Quiet to unsettled on July 26-27, 29-31, August 1, 4, 9 Quiet to active on July 20-23, August 7, 10-12 Unsettled to active on July 28, August 5-6 No active to disturbed days are predicted.
Solar wind will intensify on August (2-3,) 7-8, (9-14)
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
On July 17 spaceweather.com reported a coronal hole spewing a stream of solar wind, with arrival expected to cause minor geomagnetic upset around July 19-20.
They also reported that so far in this calendar year 640f all days were without sunspots. Last year the total number of spotless days was 61%, 28% in 2017, 9 0n 2016, and zero days were spotless in 2011-2015, except for 2 days in 2011 and 1 day in 2014.
On Saturday morning, July 13, N4SO of Grand Bay, Alabama reported "24.915 MHz FT8 digital mode. Power is 15 watts. Date: 12 July testing a new antenna.
Worked K1HZ (Texas) (QRP 5 watts for first contact), W6SR (California), K0TW (Arizona), K0COL (Colorado), KF7F (Utah), TG9AKH (Guatemala), and K0JJ (Oregon). I saw other DX but no contact.
The 12 meter band opened today (Saturday) with only 3 stations calling CQ, W2SKI (Virginia), XE2YWB (Zacatecas, NW of Mexico City) and VE2GCE (Quebec).'D
VE6GK reported: "Almost 50 years since my first QSO and I still love learning about and following the sunspot cycle.'D
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reported on July 12:
Also on July 12, KD4SR reported, in a message titled "Don't forget Sporadic-E!'D Yesterday I worked P.R., HH, HI, PV, and VE from Central Florida on 6 meters, 100 watts, FT8. Japan was worked by others. Europe, Africa, and all over North and South America have been regulars on 6 almost daily. G5RV and ground plane antennas. Summer is Es season.'D
Jeff, N8II in Kentucky reported:
"The day before the IARU HF Championship, 10 meters opened fairly well to Europe; around 2016Z I turned on the radio to find EA4ZK on 10 CW with a S6-8 signal and made an easy QSO. This was followed by CW QSO's with Belgium, Germany, Oliver, F6ARC in France, LZ1NK in Bulgaria (moved up from 15M where he was S9, weak on 10), Karel, OK1CF in Czech Republic, Italy, P44W in Aruba, and 8P5A, Barbados. Also worked on 10M SSB were EC1KR in Spain and F4FPG. The last EU QSO was OK1CF at 2217Z, an opening of at least 2 hours.
Chores prevented any activity in the contest on the 13th until 1910Z when I found EI7M, Ireland on 10M CW. The 10M band was also wide open to New England, NY, and FL. Thanks to many IARU member headquarters stations being on all bands whenever open, I managed quite a few EU QSO's.
On CW, HQ stations in France, England, and later Belgium, Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia were worked along with about 3 Germans, Croatia, Belgium, Hungary, and England (last QSO at 2200Z).
On SSB at 1932Z I quickly worked 6 HQ stations in Croatia, France, Serbia, Italy, and Switzerland, then later adding Germany. It was disappointing that there was almost no non-HQ activity on SSB.
The propagation highlight was hearing 4Z7ZZ in Israel Q5 copy here calling IO8HQ in Italy; that is huge number of Es hops! PX2A in Brazil was also logged at 1916Z.
On 15 meters, the EU stations were more numerous as were many USA stations in all parts of the country. There was some propagation to all of South America (Es to F2) and Hawaii was good copy via mostly Es, I would guess.
By the time I managed some time on 20M, the Es to EU was largely gone, but many EU HQ stations were still active with good signals. Late in the evening past 0300Z I was called by ZL2BAQ and ZL4NR in New Zealand, and VK4SP in Queensland, Australia on 20 SSB.
On CW around 0300Z, the band was open to ITU zones across Asiatic Russia from Sakhalin Island to the Ural mountains, but activity was low.
40M was open well to the USA, Canada, and Europe from sunset through 0300Z, but the HQ station count was lower than expected.
NU1AW, the IARU HQ station in Newington, Connecticut was very active on all bands. It was easy making QSO's on both modes on 10 and 15M, and CW on 20 and 40M."
Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:
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For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
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Sunspot numbers for July 11 through 17, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 66.8, 66, 67.2, 67.1, 67.2, and 67.8, with a mean of 67. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 6, 5, 7, 4, and 6, with a mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 5, 6, 6, 8, 5, and 8, with a mean of 6.7. NNNN
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